The Shape of the Future: No More Population Pyramid

As a student of child labor and child welfare programs, I have long thought that most of us underestimate the dramatic changes associated with ending child labor. Since most of us in the U.S. grew up in a country that effectively banned child labor, we think it is normal that children go to school, play, and do their homework. It is tough to realize that this now ordinary pattern really wasn't the rule in the U.S. until the Progressive Era. In poor regions of the world like Africa and South America, this pattern has still not completely taken hold.

One of the most interesting articles that help illustrate the breathtaking changes caused by child labor laws crossed my desk this week. John Parker, the environmental editor of one of my favorite magazines, The Economist, wrote  "The World Reshaped: The End of the Population Pyramid," back in November 2014. The most interesting part of this article, for me, is how the famous population pyramid is predicted to change over the next half century. See, below: 

In Parker's view, the declining fertility rate is largely responsible for the changes we see in the population pyramid between 1970 and 2015. The column shape of the pyramid that scholars anticipate for 2060 is largely the result of improved longevity in his view. 

I have been fascinated with this chart all week. I think that Parker is misinterpreting this information because, like most social scientists, he does not appreciate the impact of child labor laws on fertility, increased intellectual capital, and wealth accumulation. In the first place, child labor laws are unlikely to change and thus we will never see increases in fertility rates again. (Unless, of course, the Muslims take over completely and drag us into their dysfunctional world view.) In fact, I would predict that the fertility rate will eventually decrease everywhere as child labor laws are enacted and fully enforced. If parents cannot benefit from their children's labor, then we are taking away what has traditionally been one of the most important reasons to have children in the first place. 

I do, of course, anticipate that improvements in medicine will result in longer life spans. It makes sense to me that the column will continue to get higher for that reason. Nevertheless, I also expect that the base of the column -- the number of children in the world -- will continue to decrease until major (even dramatic) efforts are made to encourage increased fertility rates. 

I am still thinking through the implications of this new column shaped population pyramid. At the very least, it give us a more accurate image of what the world will look like for many generations to come. Those of us alive today will be among the first to think through the predictable trials and tribulations of this brave new world. 

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Theories Regarding the Growth of Government

I'm putting my work on Pathway to Prosperity on the back burner while I focus on growing my for profit business and doing what I can to be useful during the upcoming presidential campaign. Nevertheless, I think I do want to address the larger question of what causes the growth of government. I'm concerned that there is too little attention to the role that the elimination of child labor has on our culture and our government institutions. Remove child labor and you need to provide somewhere for children to be taken care of outside of the farm or factory. They need to be in school and we need to have financial support for them if their parents are killed or injured and unable to work. For an interesting book that looks into the causes of larger government while neglecting the role, apparently, of child labor reform, see Robert Higgs’s 1987 book Crisis and Leviathan: Critical Episodes in the Growth of American Government. Here is the link.

Our Mission: An Overview of Pathway to Prosperity

Pathway to Prosperity (P2P) is an organization developed to educate the general public on the role of child labor law enforcement as a key and non-negotiable feature essential to the development of modern, economically viable, and civilized societies.

The inspiration for P2P was the pioneering research of John C. Drew, Ph.D. who first called the attention of political scientists to the neglected role played by the enforcement of child labor laws in the U.S. as the most convincing explanation for the origins and uneven development of the U.S. welfare state. Dr. Drew traced many of the most prominent features of modern society (things most of us take for granted) to the relatively recent implementation of child labor law enforcement in the 1900-1915 Progressive Era. Previous models of social and economic development, according to Dr. Drew, neglected to connect the dots that showed how the unintended consequences of child labor law enforcement ended up creating a compelling need for modern social programs including the first playgrounds, child and youth serving organizations like the Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts, primary and secondary educational facilities, and early child welfare programs including Workers Compensation, Mothers’ Pensions and Social Security Insurance.[1] Dr. Drew’s research is critical in asserting the permanence of the welfare state once a social decision to eliminate child labor takes root.[2] As President Clinton said: “If you want them to go to school, if you understand those countries will never grow until they begin to educate their children, the girls as well as the boys…We have to start with the abolition of child labor.”[3]

Dr. Drew received the William Anderson Award from the American Political Science Association in 1989 for this work which is now published as a book. While serving as an Assistant Professor of Management at Hope International University in Fullerton, CA, Dr. Drew became interested in the feasibility of implementing child labor law enforcement in developing nations as a fresh and hopeful answer to the troubling persistence of poverty, illiteracy and disease in developing nations.

“The traditional model of development,” observed Dr. Drew, “simply assumes that modern institutions and prosperity emerge as a by-product of economic development. The child labor/child welfare model suggests the enforcement of child labor laws is the missing link in the development process.” The importance of the role of child labor law enforcement is a powerful explanatory variable for why democratic countries like India have lagged behind, while authoritarian (and corrupt) nations have suddenly prospered despite the predictions of social scientists tied to the earlier paradigm.

Governed by a five (5) member Board of Directors, Pathway to Prosperity is dedicated to introducing a new paradigm to shed light on the ultimate causes of poverty, illiteracy, and human-trafficking in the U.S. and in developing nations.


[1] Drew, J. “The Child and the American Welfare State,” in Howard Gensler, ed., The American Welfare System: Origins, Structure, and Effects. (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1996), pp. 3-22.
[2] Barton, T. “Exploring Human Dimensions of Welfare Reform,” Journal of Intergroup Relations, Volume XXIII, No. 4, pp. 74-76.
[3] “Clinton Decries Forced Child Labor,” The Orange County Register, June 13, 1999, p. 20.